The Logistics Indicator for Q1/25 Does Not Exude Optimism

The Federal Association of Logistics (BVL) e.V. publishes the Logistics Indicator for the 1st quarter of 2025. The business situation for shippers and logistics service providers remains at a low level. The result does not exude much optimism. This was still the case with the figures for Q4/24, but must now be revised.

The statement on the Logistics Indicator for the 1st quarter of 2025 by Kai Althoff, Chairman of the Board of the Federal Association of Logistics (BVL) e.V. and CEO of 4flow SE:

Kai Althoff

(Berlin) “The figures for the 4th quarter of 2024 had led us to a slight optimism, as business expectations in the logistics sector had slightly increased. However, as the new values of the Logistics Indicator for the 1st quarter of 2025 show, the hope was somewhat premature. Almost all indicator values have decreased again, albeit only slightly.

The business situation remains low in Q1 for both shippers and logistics service providers. Interestingly, the business situation for logistics service providers (indicator value 85.8) is still significantly better than the business expectations (80.8) and the business climate (83.3) in this segment. Conversely, in industry and trade, there is a slightly more optimistic view on business expectations (87.1) and business climate (83.4) despite a weaker current situation assessment (79.8).

In the monthly view, the situation has improved slightly – in February, all indicator numbers for the entire economic sector rose slightly. Only the business expectations and the business climate for shippers continued to decline slightly.

The Uncertainty is Great

The uncertainty in the logistics sector is thus significant in light of the current economic situation and the (geo-)political developments with an uncertain future regarding the Ukraine war and US tariffs. It is therefore all the more important that a reliable and capable federal government is formed quickly, which can present a clear plan for new economic growth, investments in infrastructure, a visible reduction of bureaucracy, and lower energy prices. Once credible concepts are established here, the confidence and willingness to invest in their business will also grow among the players in companies as well as in logistics and supply chain management.”

Photo/Graphic: © BVL