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The military offensive by the USA and Israel against Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, has significant implications for global air and sea routes. TLF Overseas, the French organization for transport and logistics, analyzes the situation and its consequences for international transport operators.
On February 28, 2026, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed during the military actions. In response, Iran announced the closure of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz and conducted attacks on several countries in the region. This escalation affects two of the most significant trade routes worldwide: the airspace over the Gulf and maritime traffic in the Red Sea and the Hormuz Strait.
Impact on Air Traffic
The closures of airspaces in Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, Israel, and the UAE led to 19,000 flight delays and over 2,100 flight cancellations within 24 hours. This corresponds to an 18% decrease in global air freight capacity. Major airlines have suspended their services to the region. The key hubs in Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, which are crucial for connections between Europe, the Indian Ocean, and Asia, are affected. Options for rerouting are currently severely limited.
Philippe de Crécy, President of TLF Overseas, commented on the consequences: “The simultaneous paralysis of the three main hubs in the Middle East leads to a disruption of air freight flows, the extent of which we cannot yet fully grasp. The uncertainty regarding the duration and course of the conflict complicates the planning of transit times, capacity management, and the forecasting of congestion at ports and airports.”
Reorganization in Maritime Traffic
The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil and LNG traffic flows, is being closed by Iran. Leading shipping companies, including CMA-CGM, Maersk, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd, have suspended their calls in the region and redirected their ships to safe areas. To cover the additional operating costs, insurance, and fuel prices, congestion fees of $2,000 to $4,000 per container have been announced. Short-term congestion effects are expected in Asian ports.
Anne-Sophie Fribourg (photo), Vice President of TLF Overseas, stated: “A closure of the Hormuz Strait would have immediate structural impacts on global maritime supply chains. The major container hubs in the Persian Gulf – Jebel Ali, Port Khalifa, Port Hamad, and Port Shuwaikh – are critical transshipment points for trade between the Middle East, Asia, and Europe. Their shutdown would lead to a massive rerouting of regional freight and cause a chain reaction of congestion in Asian or European ports.”
TLF Overseas is continuously monitoring developments and will inform industry stakeholders about the progress of the situation.
