ELVIS warns of economic risks

The European Freight Alliance of International Forwarders (ELVIS) AG has drawn a mixed balance in its current market report for the first quarter of 2026. While demand in road freight remains stable and high utilization is recorded, the economic framework conditions are deteriorating. Rising energy costs, geopolitical risks, and a weak economy lead to an increasingly pessimistic outlook for the industry. The freight alliance recommends transport companies to critically review the profitability of their operations.

Nikolja Grabowski, board member of ELVIS AG, expressed concern about the economic situation in Germany: “Germany is still in an economic deadlock. The stagnation is no longer a temporary phenomenon but a reflection of structural problems that have not been resolved for years.” Despite minimal growth at the beginning of the year, several economic institutes have revised their forecasts for the future downward.

Negative Signals from the Industry

The manufacturing sector is also sending negative signals. Industries such as chemicals, machinery, and automotive are struggling with weak demand, which is reflected in a declining business climate and disappointed expectations. Grabowski emphasizes: “As long as there is no sustainable turnaround in the industry, which is the backbone of the German economy, the transport market will not be able to embark on a lasting growth path.”

However, there is a robust demand in road freight. The truck toll mileage increased by 15.4 percent in March 2026 compared to the previous month and by 4.6 percent compared to the previous year’s figure. The transport barometer, which measures the ratio of freight to available cargo space in the spot market, also indicates high utilization. In April, the value rose by 15.6 percent compared to the previous month and by 7.2 percent compared to the same month last year. However, Grabowski warns: “Those who only look at utilization may misjudge the situation. The market currently appears more stable than it actually is.”

Rising Energy Costs as a Burden

The development of energy costs represents an additional risk factor. Due to the Iran war, diesel prices rose by 41.3 percent in April compared to the same month last year. Grabowski describes the situation: “Such a high increase in diesel prices within a year is an existential burden for many transport companies.” The geopolitical situation in the Middle East also leads to increased uncertainty in energy markets and noticeable volatility. Many companies expect further price increases and a declining employment trend.

According to ELVIS, the real effects of energy shortages will only fully reflect in inflation data and operating costs later in the year.

Scarcity of Cargo Space Capacities

The structural change in road freight continues. Insolvencies, the withdrawal of individual companies, and increasing acquisitions lead to a decreasing supply of available cargo space. Grabowski warns: “The currently high utilization is not a sign of a booming market: it is primarily the result of a shrinking supply. More and more capacities are permanently disappearing from the market.”

In this context, the board of the freight alliance recommends using the current phase for a critical review of one’s business activities. Grabowski emphasizes: “Many entrepreneurs in our industry have been struggling for years with rising costs and ever-new uncertainties. A good order situation should not obscure how important economically viable customer relationships and reasonable prices are. In the end, it is not just about utilization, but about the profitability of the business.”

www.elvis-ag.com