Taking a big step into 2035
Many people would appear to have forgotten that the Chinese economy remains a centrally-planned effort. The 14th five-year plan that has just been passed includes an ambitious scheme for the transport sector with a 15-year horizon.
China’s two major political congregations, the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference – popularly known as ‘lianghui’, or the two sessions – have just been completed in Beijing. The adoption of the 14th five-year plan for 2021–2025 was at the top of the agenda.
Whether the plan also covered question concerning the further development of the country’s transport and logistics sector, and if so to what extent, isn’t definite yet. What is known now are parts of a 15-year plan for the transport industry, which was presented to the central committee of the Communist Party of China and the government at the end of February. It plays a similar role to Switzerland’s ‘Sachplan Verkehr’ traffic plan, for example, or Germany’s ‘Bundesverkehrswegeplan’, its national traffic-route plan.
Strategic-operational goals to 2035
China’s transport plan for the years 2021–2035 aims to contribute to increasing the degree of self-sufficiency in the country, and to speeding up industrial renewal. The plan is based on the assumption that passenger traffic will increase by an average of 3.3% annually over the next 15 years. Goods traffic, in turn, is expected to grow by 2% annually.
The ‘Postal Express Service’, which not only covers the parcels carried in China Post’s EMS options, but also those of YTO, SF, Sto, Yunda, ZTO, etc, is expected to augment by 6.3% annually.
Prioritising rail services
Investment in all transport routes remains at the top of the list of projects. On top of this, the medium-term plan envisages expanding the high-speed network from 30,000 km today to approximately 70,000 km by 2035. The entire railway network is set to grow from 146,000 km today to approximately 200,000 km in the same period. It seems questionable whether the 22,000 km that remain for classic routes will suffice to improve connections inland and to create more prosperity for the people, in the light of the immense spatial expanse.
Expanding other modes of transport
The other modes of transport will also be promoted strongly. The motorway network, as well as that of other roads, is set to expand to 460,000 km. The inland waterways network, which is considered capable of a particularly strong performance, is expected to be expanded to 25,000 km. This is a very important component of the plan, in the light of protecting the environment.
Domestic air travel is also becoming more important. The number of civil airports is set to grow by 162 to 400. It will require very careful analysis to establish whether this expansion will compete too heavily with high-speed train routes and thus lead to their cannibalisation. One thing is certain, though – demand for freight space for parcels is set to increase.
The 15-year plan for the transport sector also includes goals for vehicles and their engines. Intelligent and autonomous units are set to be developed, above all. China’s BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) will also be pushed. Expanding magnetic levitation technology (maglev) was already declared a key goal earlier. Besides the well-known route in Shanghai, the maglev that is a part of the Beijing urban railway system and which can travel at 80–100 km / h is also included. Intense work on magnet railways that can travel at 600 km / h is also ongoing. Two prototypes were presented in the last six months.
Authorised major railway projects in China 2021–2035
Region / province: Greater Bay Area (Guangdong / Hong Kong / Macao)
Planned costs: USD 73.5 billion
Function: High-speed link in the southeast, with local traffic connections
Region / province: Shandong province and its capital Jinan
Planned costs: USD 17.9 billion
Function: Local routes linking eleven cities in the province and its capital
Region / province: Zhejiang province and the port city of Ningbo
Planned costs: USD 13.6 billion
Function: Third phase of the expansion of the urban railway network
Region / province:Beijing, Hebei and Shandong provinces
Planned costs:USD 13.5 billion
Function: Connecting the new city Xiong’an to Beijing and Shandong province
Region / province:Sichuan province and the Yangtze River Delta
Planned costs:USD 13.2 billion
Function: High-speed link between Chengdu, Dazhou and Wanzhou
Table: South China Morning Post
