Sea Intelligence on demand in Q4/2020
The Copenhagen (Denmark)-based maritime consultancy "Sea Intelligence" recently analysed the latest demand data for September 2020 published by Container Trade Statistics (CTS). Global demand grew by 6.9% in comparison to September 2019, with positive growth in all import regions except South America.
The demand recovery in 2020 has been exceptional. Yet, the impact of the pandemic is such that overall demand in 2020 is still negative -3.5% compared to January-September 2019.
Considering the improvement in recent months, it is relevant to ask whether there is a likelihood that 2020 will actually end with a full-year volume growth compared to 2019.
CEO Alan Murphy believes that "if the current rebound continues – i.e. with a 6.9% growth for the three months in Q4/2020 compared to Q4/2019 2020, demand growth will still be a negative - 2.0%. A 10.1% growth across Q4/2020 would mean that the full-year demand volumes in 2020 will be on par with those in 2019 by the end of December." (cd)