Q3/2020 in the doldrums, Sea Intelligence expects
In its latest issue 106 of its Global Liner Performance (GLP) report, the Copenhagen (Denmark)-based maritime intelligence provider Sea-Intelligence refers to the recent revision of the IMF's outlook for the global economy, revising a -3.0% projected recession for 2020 downwards to -4.9%.
From a container shipping perspective, the drop in world trade, previously projected at -11.0%, is now estimated at -11.9% for 2020, with the 2021 rebound revised down from 8.4% to 8.0%.
The EUR area saw GDP growth projections decline from an already low -7.5% to -10.2%. This is especially concerning since the region will drive demand to fill the newest generation of ultra-large container vessels.
Consequently, the high levels of capacity withdrawals are also likely to persist. The number of blank sailings announced for Q3/2020 increased from just 13 in week 20 to 76 in week 25 and then to 82 in week 26 (current week). (mw)