Is the trade tide turning?
In an analysis for the G20 countries, based on figures provided by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Flexport has reported a 1.1% decline in imports and a 1.3% decline in exports in the third quarter of this year. The G20 group accounts for about 75% of world trade and 85% of world GDP.
While the recovery of trade after the 2008/2009 global financial crisis essentially only restored trade to its previous levels, the values of imports after the 2020/2021 pandemic shock rose to levels well above the pre-pandemic situation.
After the onset of the Covid-19 crisis, imports increased steadily from Q3/2020 to Q3/2022. They rose by 43.5% in the G20, by 41.8% in the EU, by 35.6% in the USA, and 28.3% in China.
Despite the decline, import values are currently still close to all-time highs, historically speaking. While rates in maritime transport continue to trend downwards, freight space is plentiful, but the reliability of schedules is affected by port congestion and delays.
In the air transport segment, overall demand from Europe remains steady and below expected levels for this time of year, with slight increases on certain key routes, such as AMS–JFK. Capacity available in the market has fallen to the usual fourth quarter levels, but remains sufficient to meet current demand. (sh)