How bad is the situation in Shenzhen?
In its recent analysis, Chicago-based software developer and intelligence provider Four Kites reports that China’s zero-Covid policy is having a severe impact on the supply chains across the country. At Shenzhen, normally the country’s second busiest port, a trend of sharply declining volumes was noted - not just last week, as the city went into full lock-down, but over the last three weeks as authorities there took measures to stop the spread of Covid-19.
Four Kites: "With delays in other parts of the world, notably the US ports that Shenzhen serves, Covid-19 restrictions at the Chinese port may not represent the worst bottleneck. It may not be worth rerouting, if goods must sit on ships for two weeks anyway before they are able to depart for the USA. Chinese lock-downs tend to be short lived and so waiting it out may also be an option for users of Shenzhen."
The fact that dwell times have not shot up as volumes have gone down suggests that shippers are becoming more agile in their reactions to supply chain issues.
Nevertheless, in Guangdong Province, where the city of Shenzhen is located, the seven-day average ocean load volume for both imports and exports has been 43% down since 1 March 2022. On 17 March, the seven-day average load volume was down 39% week-over-week. (sh)