H2/2020: Full black or full red?
The Copenhagen (Denmark)-based maritime analyst Sea-Intelligence has issued a new assessment of the carrier's financial situation in 2020.
In a first estimate in April, the Danes suggested two possible outcomes, both based on a presumed 10% loss of volumes. One forecasts stable freight rates and a decline in net income of 800 million USD, the other warns of an abyss in freight rates with a 23 billion USD loss for all carriers.
Yet, carriers not only kept the freight rates stable – they took so much capacity out of the market that they were able to increase them.
Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, concludes: "We now have two new scenarios. If the carriers maintain the current rate levels, they stand to have a profit in excess of 9 billion USD in 2020. If they start a freight rate war in H2/2020, they stand to lose 7 billion USD." The good news is that the analysts consider black figures to be the more likely outcome. (mw)