Crude tanker demand to outpace supply
According to Bimco, the tanker shipping market is set to experience higher demand driven by trade restrictions, with crude tanker demand outpacing supply in 2024 but slowing in 2025 as ships may return to the Suez Canal, shortening sailing distances.
Product tanker demand will also exceed supply in 2024 but decline in 2025. This tightening supply/demand balance is expected to increase rates and prices in 2024, with a potential weakening in 2025. The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.2% for both 2024 and 2025, with slower growth in key economies like the USA, China, and India.
The IEA projects crude oil supply to grow by 0.3 mbpd in 2024 and 1.5 mbpd in 2025, mainly from the USA, Brazil, and Guyana, with oil demand increasing by 1.1 mbpd in 2024 and 1.2 mbpd in 2025, driven primarily by Asia.
The crude tanker fleet is expected to grow by 0.5% in 2024 and by 1.2% in 2025, while the product tanker fleet is forecast to expand by 1.8% in 2024 and by 4.7% in 2025. Static sailing speeds and congestion levels are anticipated, with shorter sailing distances and a weaker supply/demand balance potentially reducing speeds in 2025. (pb)