Container shipping outlook for 2024
According to Bimco’s latest analysis, the container shipping market is expected to experience significant changes in 2024, driven by vessels having to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope due to Red Sea attacks, which will increase sailing distances and demand for vessels.
Ship supply is anticipated to grow by 10.3% in 2024, while demand is expected to rise by 15% before falling in 2025 as ships return to the Suez Canal. This shift is predicted to maintain a tight supply/demand balance in 2024, weakening in the latter half and further into 2025.
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.2% for both 2024 and 2025, with notable disparities among major economies. New ship deliveries will set a record in 2024, contributing to fleet growth.
The market strength is reflected in higher time charter rates, freight indices, and second-hand ship prices, although potential risks include ongoing trade disputes and shifts in consumer behaviour due to inflation and interest rates.
The situation remains dynamic, with the potential for significant shifts depending on geopolitical developments and economic conditions. (pb)