Coface predicts slow pace in 2022
The insurance group Compagnie Française d'Assurance Coface recently published its business barometer, analysing the risks and opportunities lying ahead in 2022. Although economic recovery will continue, "Omicron has highlighted the unpredictability of the pandemic and exacerbated one of the main factors affecting the recovery: disruptions in supply chains." Another major risk, Coface adds, is the ongoing inflation slippage.
After initially affecting the automotive industry, supply chain difficulties have spread to most sectors, from manufacturing to construction. The analysts believe that the "the consensus of a gradual easing from H1/2022 is overly optimistic."
Altogether, this analysis has led Coface to lower its 2022 GDP growth forecasts for several European countries, as well as for USA and China. The Gulf region, on the other hand, is expected to post strong growth performance in 2022.
While Norway has recorded its highest ever trade surplus thanks to buoyant oil and gas exports, many African countries, even those affected by armed conflict or political upheaval, have still benefited from high prices for energy, minerals, timber and agricultural products.
Chinese GDP grew by 8.1% in 2021. In Asia, most of the region's economies had returned to their pre-crisis GDP levels by the end of 2021, with the notable exceptions of Japan and Thailand. (sh)