Cargo dynamics altered by Red Sea shift
In its latest analysis, Sea-Intelligence forecasts a 16% increase in teu*miles as liner networks opt for the round-of-Africa route because of the Red Sea crisis. In 2023, global teu*miles amounted to 860 billion, but with the diversion, this figure is projected to reach 994 billion in 2024.
The Europe-Indian Subcontinent trade is the most affected, while the routes between the Far East and North America are the least impacted. This is because the impact is volume-weighted, and the crisis does not affect the distances from the Far East to the USA’s West or East Coasts.
To accommodate this rise in demand, carriers can make use of existing overcapacity or increase vessel speeds. However, with more capacity expected in 2024, existing vessels are likely to slow down. (pb)