Capacity outstrips demand
The Copenhagen-based maritime consultancy Sea-Intelligence recently analysed the rising gap between global capacities on the seas and global demand.
The latest demand data from Container Trade Statistics (CTS) shows that in August 2022, the annualised growth over 2019 was below the level seen in 2019, which means that unless carriers reduce capacity substantially, vessel utilisation will be low.
Sea-Inteligence calculated that in order to maintain the ultra-high spot rate levels, a nominal utilisation in excess of 92%-93% needs to be sustained on Transpacific, with the threshold on Asia-Europe being 85%. Yet, on Transpacific, utilisation dropped below 90% for much of 2022.
On Asia-Europe, utilisation has been consistently below the 85% threshold to trigger a rate increase, and although the utilisation improved in August to 74% from 72% in July, the rolling two-month average saw a further decline from 76% to 73%. Rates on Transpacific and Asia-Europe will go down further. (sh)