Before the crest of a wave
Global container-shipping capacities are set to grow the most in 2024. The building of new containerships has its own ‘me-too’ logic. High demand for freight volumes in 2021 and 2022 triggered a boom in orders. This additional shipping space is now set to steadily increase global tonnage through to 2026. Despite recycling and disruptions to the international supply chains, demand is unlikely to keep pace with supply.
Actually, lemmings aren’t prone to collective suicide at all – contrary to their reputation. They are rightly said to migrate seasonally in herds in one and the same direction, however. Sometimes a similar picture seems to emerge when observing the large international shipping lines.
The Baltic and International Maritime Council (Bimco), whose 2,000 members represent about 62% of maritime tonnage, says that a record number of 350 new containerships were delivered in 2023. This corresponds to total capacity of 2.2 million teu – and surpasses the previous record set in 2015.
The capacity of the global container ship fleet increased by 8%. This is the highest growth rate since 2011. Currently, new ships with capacities of more than 15,000 teu dominate the scene.
A tsunami in sight
Even higher growth is expected for 2024 – 478 containerships with an overall capacity to carry 3.1 million teu will become operational this year. Global fleet capacity will grow by a further about 10% and will break through the symbolic 30 million teu threshold.
China’s – not South Korea’s! – shipyards are currently leading the way in new ship construction; they will contribute about 55% to this increase in capacity.
Although many ships are leaving the market due to recycling measures, the imbalance between supply and demand is likely to further worsen in 2024. Bimco sees slow steaming and ongoing disruptions to Red Sea routes as possible risk factors for the industry.
There’s no easing up in sight either. For the years 2025 and 2026, an additional 3 million teu of newbuildings are scheduled for delivery. What was that about lemmings?