Maritime volume contraction like in 2009?
The Copenhagen (Denmark)-based maritime consultancy Sea-Intelligence predicts a Corona-caused decline of shippers' demand similar to the aftermath of the global financial crises in 2008 and 2009: "This implies a potential volume loss of 10% equal to 17 million teu globally."
The situation may even be more serious due to arising bankruptcies of a number of industries, especially in Europe and the USA, which will harm "not only consumer spending but also the willingness of companies to order goods in the first place – as well as their ability to do so."
Yet, counter-effects prevail: besides the breakdown of the oil price, the resilience of the carriers has grown over the last years, foremost the "discipline the carriers have shown in blanking sailings and avoided dumping freight rates to fill vessels."
Thus, freight rates did not slip at this stage. A rebound effect is also not excluded "where we will temporarily see capacity shortages and rocketing freight rates."
Yet, this assumption is based on the experience we had in 2009. What will happen if the crises cuts deeper this time? (mw)