Kiel trade index with a gloomy global outlook
Faced with the threatening prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, world trade already declined significantly in February. According to the latest data from the Kiel Trade Indicator published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), global trade is expected to fall by 5.6% compared to the previous month.
This is the biggest slump since the outbreak of the corona crisis in spring 2020. According to the experts, the indications are negative for almost all economies. For the EU, declines in imports (-1.6%) and exports (-2.8%) are on the horizon. In USA, exports are down (-3.9%), while imports are up slightly (+1.2%).
In China, exports show a minimally positive trend (up 0.3%), while imports are declining (down 3.4%). For Russia, data indicate a sharp 11.8% drop in exports compared to January, with the port of St. Petersburg alone shipping 17% less goods in February. Ukraine is largely cut off from international maritime trade, with virtually no calls at the Black Sea port of Odessa. (sh)