{"id":84645,"date":"2026-04-10T16:16:59","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T16:16:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/transportjournal.com\/2026\/04\/10\/mercado-de-carga-aerea-bajo-presion-por-conflicto\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T16:16:59","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T16:16:59","slug":"mercado-de-carga-aerea-bajo-presion-por-conflicto","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/transportjournal.com\/es\/2026\/04\/10\/mercado-de-carga-aerea-bajo-presion-por-conflicto\/","title":{"rendered":"Mercado de carga a\u00e9rea bajo presi\u00f3n por conflicto"},"content":{"rendered":"

La resiliencia del mercado global de carga a\u00e9rea est\u00e1 nuevamente en la cuerda floja, ya que el conflicto en Oriente Medio pone en duda las ya bajas expectativas de crecimiento para 2026. Seg\u00fan un an\u00e1lisis de Xeneta, las lecciones de crisis pasadas ofrecen estabilidad a corto plazo, mientras que los expedidores, aerol\u00edneas y transportistas esperan c\u00f3mo se desarrollar\u00e1 la situaci\u00f3n en la regi\u00f3n y qu\u00e9 impactos a largo plazo podr\u00eda tener en la econom\u00eda mundial.<\/p>\n

Perspectivas hist\u00f3ricas y desaf\u00edos actuales<\/h3>\n

La carga a\u00e9rea ha demostrado ser un contrapeso durante crisis en la cadena de suministro, como durante la pandemia de Covid o en interrupciones en el Mar Rojo. En estos casos, la carga a\u00e9rea intervino cuando el tr\u00e1fico mar\u00edtimo se detuvo. Sin embargo, la situaci\u00f3n actual difiere de choques anteriores, ya que el conflicto actual afecta m\u00e1s a la industria de la aviaci\u00f3n y la carga a\u00e9rea que al transporte mar\u00edtimo, lo que plantea la preocupaci\u00f3n de que los peores efectos a\u00fan podr\u00edan estar por venir.<\/p>\n

Niall van de Wouw, Director de Carga A\u00e9rea de Xeneta, explica: \u201cT\u00edpicamente, informamos al comienzo de cada mes sobre el rendimiento del mercado global de carga a\u00e9rea de las \u00faltimas cuatro a cinco semanas. Sin embargo, en este momento, es menos relevante si la demanda en marzo ha disminuido un 2% o un 4%, cuando estamos al borde de una crisis econ\u00f3mica global.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ajustes de precios y din\u00e1mica del mercado<\/h3>\n

Los precios de la carga a\u00e9rea est\u00e1n aumentando, y ya hay signos de que el conflicto en Oriente Medio est\u00e1 reconfigurando los precios globales de la carga a\u00e9rea. Van de Wouw enfatiza que los costos son solo una de muchas variables. \u201cAsegurar la cuota de mercado y el servicio al cliente tambi\u00e9n juegan un papel importante\u201d, a\u00f1ade.<\/p>\n

El aumento de los precios del combustible podr\u00eda no frenar de inmediato la demanda de carga a\u00e9rea, sin embargo, esto podr\u00eda cambiar si el conflicto se prolonga. Hasta entonces, espera que la industria de la carga a\u00e9rea contin\u00fae encontrando formas de transportar mercanc\u00edas, \u201cpero eso tendr\u00e1 un costo\u201d. Destaca que las capacidades se han trasladado a aeropuertos m\u00e1s seguros como Muscat y Jeddah para mantener el suministro de carga a\u00e9rea.<\/p>\n

Esperanzas de soluciones r\u00e1pidas<\/h3>\n

Los actores en el sector de la carga a\u00e9rea depositan sus esperanzas en una r\u00e1pida resoluci\u00f3n de la situaci\u00f3n actual en Oriente Medio. Ciudades como Dub\u00e1i y Doha juegan un papel estrat\u00e9gico entre Am\u00e9rica, Asia y Europa, y han servido como motores de crecimiento para aerol\u00edneas como Emirates, Etihad y Qatar Airways. Sin embargo, la ventaja geogr\u00e1fica se ha convertido en una vulnerabilidad estrat\u00e9gica, ya que los aeropuertos hub sufren debido al conflicto.<\/p>\n

Los efectos son de gran alcance. Un aumento en los precios del petr\u00f3leo ha casi duplicado los costos del queroseno, lo que presiona a las aerol\u00edneas que ya est\u00e1n desviando o cancelando vuelos debido a cargas financieras. Cinco semanas despu\u00e9s del inicio del conflicto, la capacidad de carga a\u00e9rea en la regi\u00f3n est\u00e1 aproximadamente un 30% por debajo de los niveles previos al conflicto, lo que se refleja en los precios. Los precios globales al contado de la carga a\u00e9rea superaron en marzo los picos de la temporada 2025, alcanzando 2,86 USD por kg, el nivel m\u00e1s alto desde diciembre de 2024.<\/p>\n

Impactos globales y tendencias de precios<\/h3>\n

Las negociaciones entre aerol\u00edneas y transportistas en el primer trimestre de 2026 reflejan la din\u00e1mica que surgi\u00f3 durante la pandemia de Covid. En marzo, la proporci\u00f3n de vol\u00famenes globales enviados a precios al contado aument\u00f3 tres puntos porcentuales al 52%, lo que est\u00e1 solo un punto por debajo del nivel al inicio de la pandemia.<\/p>\n

Los efectos de los aumentos de precios se sienten especialmente en los corredores de salida del sur de Asia y el sudeste asi\u00e1tico hacia Oriente Medio. Los precios al contado aumentaron en la semana hasta el 29 de marzo entre un 50% y un 100% en comparaci\u00f3n con cuatro semanas antes. Este pico de precios refleja una combinaci\u00f3n de factores de presi\u00f3n: importantes cuellos de botella de capacidad debido a la fuerte dependencia de las aerol\u00edneas en Oriente Medio, costos de queroseno casi duplicados y nuevos recargos por riesgo de guerra.<\/p>\n

\u201cSi la carga a\u00e9rea se beneficia o sufre a largo plazo depende de la duraci\u00f3n del conflicto y sus resultados\u201d, concluye van de Wouw. En marzo, la demanda global de carga a\u00e9rea cay\u00f3 un 3% en comparaci\u00f3n con el a\u00f1o anterior, mientras que la oferta de capacidades fue un 6% m\u00e1s baja que en marzo de 2025. El factor de carga din\u00e1mico, una medida de la utilizaci\u00f3n de la capacidad, aument\u00f3 al 65%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

www.tiaca.org<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La resiliencia del mercado de carga a\u00e9rea se ve amenazada por el conflicto en Oriente Medio, lo que lleva a un aumento de precios e incertidumbres en la econom\u00eda global.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":84642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1613,1614,1610,1606,1611,1607,1612,1605],"tags":[2932,2250,22490,14295,2252,2600,5214,37797,2940,37798,37799,2942,2207,2943,23785,2260,37800,22498,22499,8059,2213,32742,37801,2949,5446,3234,2277,23792,3521,37802,33167,37803,2176,22517,22519,2634,3524,2284,37804,2286,9220,9221,23801,3526,9227,37805,37806,23581,36871,5459,1857,5462,2297,1837],"class_list":["post-84645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-africa","category-america","category-asia-pacifico","category-carga-aerea","category-europa","category-navegacion-y-puertos","category-oriente-medio","category-expedicion-y-logistica","tag-air-freight-capacity","tag-air-freight-contracts","tag-air-freight-demand","tag-air-freight-digitalization","tag-air-freight-industry","tag-air-freight-infrastructure","tag-air-freight-prices","tag-air-freight-supply","tag-airlines","tag-ajustements-de-prix","tag-approvisionnement-en-fret-aerien","tag-capacite-de-fret-aerien","tag-chaine-dapprovisionnement","tag-compagnies-aeriennes","tag-conflit-au-moyen-orient","tag-contrats-de-fret-aerien","tag-couts-du-kerosene","tag-demande-de-fret-aerien","tag-deutsch-luftfrachtmarkt","tag-digitalisierung-luftfracht","tag-economie-du-transport","tag-emirates","tag-etihad","tag-fluggesellschaften","tag-freight-forwarders","tag-freight-logistics","tag-industrie-du-fret-aerien","tag-infrastructure-du-fret-aerien","tag-infrastruktur-luftfracht","tag-jet-fuel-costs","tag-kerosinkosten","tag-konflikt-naher-osten","tag-logistique-de-fret","tag-luftfracht-kapazitaet","tag-luftfracht-nachfrage","tag-luftfrachtindustrie","tag-luftfrachtlogistik","tag-luftfrachtpreise","tag-luftfrachtversorgung","tag-luftfrachtvertraege","tag-market-share","tag-marktanteil","tag-middle-east-conflict","tag-numerisation-du-fret-aerien","tag-part-de-marche","tag-preisanpassungen-english-air-freight-market","tag-price-adjustments-francais-marche-de-la-fret-aerien","tag-prix-du-fret-aerien","tag-qatar-airways","tag-spediteure","tag-supply-chain","tag-transitaires","tag-transport-economy","tag-transportwirtschaft"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMercado 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