Building an ocean-to-ocean corridor
The reduction of Chinese subsidies for rail transport between China and Europe is likely to have a drastic impact on flows and give rise to a reallocation across the routes of the New Silk Road, the latest UIC study concludes.
Southern routes via Kazakhstan will be the first affected due to the fact that most of the cargo currently transported heavily relies on subsidies which will then shift to sea. Shrinking subsidies from 50% to 20% together with the impact of the coronavirus outbreak are part of a negative scenario in which the report forecasts volumes to be less than 450,000 teu in 2030.
This represents more than four times less than in an optimistic scenario mainly driven by digitalisation, infrastructure improvements and support measures for rail transport.
The modelling in the survey shows that the best solution to mitigate these difficulties are coordinated joint efforts along ocean-to-ocean corridors, with a further integration of segments on 15,200 mm and 1,435 mm areas and links to the Republic of Korea and Japan. (ben)