Beyond the peak of container flows?
For the first time in around a year, the months-long catch-up process in global trade is likely to be interrupted in May. The Kiel Trade Indicator, Germany, signals stagnation or a decline in imports and exports.
For total world trade a slight decline of 1.4% is expected in May. Declining trade activity is especially anticipated for the EU, with the index value for exports at -4.7% slightly deeper in the red than that for imports at -2.1%.
For the USA, the Kiel Trade Indicator also signals a negative sign for exports (-2.2%) and imports (-1.9%). The indicator values for China's exports (-1.0%) and imports (+0.1%) are close to zero, so that stagnation can be assumed here.
"The indicators hint at a break in the upward trend in trade flows that has been ongoing for months. This could be due to the fact that demand for shipping containers currently exceeds supply and is driving up transport prices.
Shortages of certain products and raw materials could also contribute to the break in the trend," says Vincent Stamer, head of Kiel Trade Indicator. The next update of the Kiel Trade Indicator will take place on 3 June 2021. (cd)