Credit Insurer Credendo Sees Danger for Economic Development

With the Corona shock last spring, global trade fell in May 2020 to the levels of the early 2010s. The boom in e-commerce and the demand from Europe and the USA for medical devices and electronics from Asia led to a strong recovery in the third quarter. China resumed industrial production early, allowing the volume of global goods trade to reach an all-time high.

(Wiesbaden) This boom initially masked problems arising from a lack of container ship capacity. The credit insurer Credendo sees this as a serious burden on global supply chains. The rising demand for Chinese exports met a market from which ships had previously been withdrawn to support prices. As a result, freight rates on routes between Asia and Europe have at least tripled since December. The shortage of sailors and pandemic-related restrictions in ports are delaying the return of ships to Asia and exacerbating the problems. Additionally, there was the multi-day blockage of the Suez Canal, through which about 12% of global trade is conducted, caused by the grounded giant container ship Ever Given. Hundreds of ships had to wait for passage.

Staff Shortages Will Persist

Industry experts from Credendo expect ongoing problems due to staff shortages for a longer period. In the countries from which many sailors and dock workers come, vaccinations against Corona are particularly slow. Rising freight rates mean higher raw material prices, from wood to polymers to textiles. Reports indicate that Chinese textile factories had to close. However, the supply chain problems are particularly acute in the semiconductor industry. Credendo points to the convergence of supply issues with enormous demand for computers and other electronic devices for remote work, the winter storm in Texas that hit one of the largest chip factories, and a fire in a major Japanese chip factory in March. Automobile manufacturers are also suffering from supply problems and have to limit their production. In Taiwan, a record drought is affecting semiconductor production. According to Credendo, little relief is expected before the end of the year.

Credendo Short-Term Non-EU Risks

Credendo is a European credit insurance group represented across the continent. We operate in all areas of goods credit insurance and political risk insurance, offering products for global coverage of your risks.
Photo: iStock/Credendo