ELVIS warns of limited cargo space and high prices

The European Cargo Alliance of International Forwarders (ELVIS) AG draws a sobering conclusion in its latest market report for the fourth quarter of 2024: The past year ended once again with a slight decline in gross domestic product (GDP). Although the transport market was stabilized in the final quarter by consumption and trade, the expansion of tolls to smaller vehicles leads to distorted comparative values in overall mileage.

(Alzenau) In the wake of the spring revival, the ongoing reduction of fleets remains particularly problematic: Even with a slight increase in demand, cargo space shortages and price jumps are imminent. As reserves have largely been depleted due to the prevailing price pressure in the market, shippers should engage in dialogue with logistics service providers early during seasonal peaks.

“Our current market report confirms that the developments from 2023 are continuing: The economy has not recovered in 2024 either. With a GDP decline of 0.2 percent, it is shrinking for the second consecutive year,” says Nikolja Grabowski, board member of ELVIS AG. Although minimal growth is forecasted for the next twelve months, a real turnaround is not in sight. The tense situation is particularly reflected in the manufacturing sector. The automotive sector, in particular, is operating at a historically low level: The output of German industrial production in the area of motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts fell in December 2024 compared to the previous month (-10.0 percent) and the same month last year (-12.2 percent).

According to ELVIS, the transport market was still mainly supported by trade in the last quarter of 2024. The internet and mail-order trade developed particularly dynamically, recording a sales increase of 5.3 percent in December 2024 compared to November and even 15.5 percent compared to December 2023. While the monthly truck toll mileage in December 2024 decreased by 20 percent compared to November, it was 3.3 percent higher than in December 2023. However, the comparative figures for overall mileage from the previous year are slightly distorted. “Due to the recent inclusion of smaller vehicles up to 3.5 tons in the toll system, the overall mileage appears to be about 1.6 percent higher than it actually is,” explains Grabowski.

At the beginning of the new year, transport companies remain optimistic: In January 2025, all three indicators of the ifo economic outlook for the area of ‘freight transport by road’ showed an upward trend compared to December 2024 (business climate: 19.8 percent; business situation: 3.6 percent; business expectations: 41.5 percent). The revival is even more pronounced in year-on-year comparisons: Compared to January 2024, all three indicators show significant increases of 35.2 percent, 17.2 percent, and 59.1 percent, respectively. Revenue expectations also show a slight increase, being 6.7 percent higher in January 2025 than in the same month last year. A non-representative survey by ELVIS AG from February slightly dampens this positive outlook: 44 percent of the surveyed forwarding companies stated that their business situation had worsened in the last four weeks. However, almost half (48 percent) expect that there will be no major changes in the next four weeks.

According to the market report, the cost development has also remained stable: Due to the overall moderate inflation, prices have hardly changed. For example, wholesale selling prices in January 2025 increased only slightly by 0.9 percent compared to January 2024. The forwarding companies surveyed by ELVIS also expect that transport prices will either continue to fall (34 percent) or remain the same (44 percent) in the next four weeks. However, the increase in wages for truck drivers is significantly more noticeable: In the third quarter of 2024, personnel costs were 6.6 percent above the level of the same quarter last year. This continues the catch-up effect of the wage-price spiral from previous quarters.

Reduction of the own fleet raises concerns

The forwarding alliance sees particular cause for concern in the ongoing trend to further reduce its own fleet – experts currently estimate a decline of 5 to 10 percent. Even a slight increase in demand is expected to lead to cargo space shortages and sharply rising prices. ELVIS sees a major challenge for the industry in this development: “The upcoming spring business will put significant demands on transport capacities. Previously, fluctuations in demand could be offset by reserve trucks and additional drivers – however, these buffers have now largely been depleted and are not available again in the short term,” explains Grabowski. “Shippers should therefore engage in dialogue with their logistics service providers early to avoid bottlenecks during seasonal peaks.”

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Photo: © ELVIS