Uncertainty in Sea Freight Remains Temporarily

At the end of January, a crucial time in maritime transport arrives. With the Chinese New Year and the start of the new US government, potential disruptions are to be expected. While the Chinese New Year typically brings some blank sailings and a temporary decrease in volume, major container shipping lines are lowering rates in the battle for market share.

By: Lena von Fritschen, Transporeon

( Ulm) What is the actual impact? A limited availability of ships for exports is to be expected 6-8 weeks later, especially in Europe, with delays anticipated towards the end of March and early April due to longer routes around the Cape.

The Chinese New Year is also the trigger for the reshaping of shipping alliances. The usual decline in volumes presents a good opportunity for shipping companies to reschedule their ships, adjust schedules, and realign international shipping services. This realignment may lead to short-term fluctuations in transit times and routings as shipping lines fine-tune their operations. The positive effects will only become apparent over time.

And then there is the Suez Canal. Currently, shipping companies continue to prefer the Cape route due to ongoing instability in the Red Sea, which means longer transit times. However, all alliances are likely to have prepared alternative schedules through the Suez Canal in case the situation improves. In this case, shippers should expect a double-edged effect: shorter transit times, but also intense competition for volume, which could potentially drive freight rates down. Once the shift occurs, they should brace for 3 to 4 months of chaos as schedules and port operations are revised.

In the meantime, ongoing trade tensions between China and the US add a new level of complexity. With the new US government, a reduced trade volume could impact both pricing and capacities, especially if the US imposes new restrictions on the state-owned Chinese shipping line, which could affect ocean carriers and also impact Europe.

Mitigating Risks and Maintaining Stability

As further disruptions are expected in 2025, shippers should adopt a proactive approach to better adapt to changing market conditions and route changes. For example, implementing flexible operational measures can help manage price volatility and secure capacities. Through adaptable strategic planning and pricing mechanisms, shippers can mitigate risks and maintain stability in an unpredictable market.

Lena von Fritschen serves as Director of Market Intelligence at Transporeon, a Trimble company, leading strategic market research and analysis initiatives in the road freight transport industry. She has extensive experience in the logistics and transport sector and specializes in analyzing market trends, competitive landscapes, and customer needs. The expertise she gained during her time at a German logistics company complements her current role in providing data-driven market insights. She holds a Master’s degree in Logistics and Supply Chain Management from Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh, Scotland.