ELVIS Releases Market Report for the Third Quarter of 2024

Currently, there is little sign of relaxation: The European Cargo Alliance of International Forwarders (ELVIS) AG has published its latest market report for the third quarter of 2024 and draws a mixed conclusion. This is particularly due to the fact that the German economy is still not gaining momentum. Added to this are bureaucratic hurdles, a lack of investment incentives, and the pessimistic outlook of companies.

(Alzenau) Just looking at trade provides a glimmer of hope as the year comes to a close. Since the tight cargo space currently has no impact on transport prices, the freight alliance is confident that there will be movement in the price structure in the coming weeks. Otherwise, the negative trend in industry insolvencies is likely to continue.

“The seasonal revival of the market after the summer did not materialize. Although the transport market was slightly strengthened, the autumn revival remains too weak to create a turnaround in the tense situation. Clear signals from politics are also needed,” says Nikolja Grabowski, board member of ELVIS AG. Although the seasonal revival is slightly above last year, the baseline remains very low. The industry has been facing tight quantities and changing conditions for years, but the German truck transport sector is not finding calmer waters this year either. Rising costs meet declining capacities amid mixed demand.

Economic Situation Remains Tense

The economic situation in Germany remains tense. This is particularly evident in the manufacturing sector. The automotive (-7.8 percent) and chemical industries (-4.3 percent) recorded a significant decline in performance in September compared to August. Nevertheless, transport companies remain optimistic. All three indicators of the ifo economic outlook for the “Goods Transport by Road” sector (business climate: 4.1 percent; current situation: 6.9 percent; business expectations: 1.1 percent) showed an upward trend in October compared to September. The slight revival is even more evident when looking at the past year: Compared to October 2023, the three indicators are now significantly up (18.2 percent, 14.7 percent, 22.5 percent). Revenue expectations also rise by 4.4 percent compared to September 2024. With the year-end and the ongoing peak season in sight, hopes currently rest on trade. Retail sales increased by 1.2 percent in September 2024 compared to the previous month and by 3.8 percent compared to the same month last year. The growth is particularly pronounced in online and mail-order sales (3.1 percent compared to August 2024 and 17.9 percent compared to September 2023). “These figures indicate that trade is maintaining a certain dynamism despite the overall economic stagnation in Germany,” says Grabowski.

Transport prices are increasingly becoming a boomerang for the logistics industry. For months, companies have been reducing their cargo space due to high costs, leading to a significant tightening in the market. Experts estimate that fleets in Germany have shrunk by five to ten percent. Additionally, there is further cost pressure: At the turn of the year, administrative expenses, insurance, and especially personnel costs are set to rise drastically. However, these additional burdens are hardly reflected in transport prices so far.

Without Price Adjustments, Insolvencies Loom

“The current price situation is a sword of Damocles for the freight forwarders. Without a price adjustment, insolvencies threaten – and thus a further tightening of cargo space,” warns Grabowski. A non-representative survey by ELVIS AG from November highlights the problem: On average, German freight carriers are currently incurring an additional cost of 10.3 cents per kilometer in pure truck traffic. Costs exceed market prices. Moreover, nearly one-third of the surveyed freight forwarders report that their business expectations for the coming weeks have deteriorated.

The complete market report is available for download here

Photo: © ELVIS