Hamburg’s Logistics Sector Severely Affected by the Coronavirus Crisis

The logistics industry in Hamburg is suffering greatly from the consequences of the coronavirus crisis. 80 percent of companies expect a decline in revenue for 2020, in some cases by more than 50 percent. An improvement in the situation is not expected until 2021. There are concerns that a current investment backlog will prolong the crisis.

(Hamburg) The situation in Hamburg’s logistics sector is partly dramatic due to the coronavirus crisis. The collapsed transport volume significantly weakens the profitability and investment plans of companies. Around 80 percent of logistics companies expect a decline in revenue for the entire year of 2020. One in ten companies even fears a coronavirus-related drop of more than 50 percent.

“The Port of Hamburg and, along with it, the seaport freight forwarders are suffering from a significant drop in throughput,” says Willem van der Schalk, Vice President of the Hamburg Chamber of Commerce and Chairman of the Association of Hamburg Freight Forwarders. “About 39 percent of the surveyed Hamburg logistics companies do not expect a normalization of their business until 2021.” Despite strong restrictions on cross-border traffic, the logistics sector has managed to keep logistics chains running, especially for critical goods such as food and medical products. “However, the production restrictions in many industrial companies and the collapsed import and export through Germany’s largest universal port have not left the sector unscathed,” says van der Schalk.

Ray of Hope on the Horizon

However, a ray of hope is emerging: 28.9 percent of the surveyed companies expect an improvement in their business situation in the next 12 months. Despite increasing goods volumes in June 2020, Christian Koopmann, Chairman of the Association of Hamburg and Bremen Ship Brokers e.V. (VHBS), believes it is still too early to speak of a turnaround. “The logistics sector has been hit quite hard by the pandemic, although the specific impacts vary depending on the mode of transport and, in part, the trade area,” says Koopmann. “Especially in bulk goods or container shipping, we have recently seen increasing volumes again. However, this does not mean that we are already out of the woods. Rather, we are still significantly below last year’s volumes.” The reasons for this are the lack of private consumption and the cautious investment behavior of the industry. The latter particularly burdens the heavy cargo and project cargo sector. “Every investment that is not made now is a missing transport order in six to nine months. Therefore, we must prepare for the fact that we will still be dealing with the economic consequences of the pandemic in 2021,” predicts Koopmann. At least in the container sector, it is expected that the goods volumes of 2019 will be reached again by 2022.

The business climate indicator of Hamburg’s logistics sector*, which incorporates assessments of the current situation as well as future developments, has risen from a record low at the end of the first quarter (24.4 points) to 60.2 points in the summer. However, it remains at a relatively low level in long-term comparison.

Slight Upward Movement

The current Hamburg Logistics Barometer 2020 shows that the slight upward movement in the business climate is primarily driven by future expectations. In contrast, the current business situation is assessed as hardly better than three months ago. The somewhat more optimistic expectations, however, are subject to the condition that domestic and foreign demand continues to recover. About 39 percent of the surveyed logistics companies also expect a normalization of their businesses only in 2021.

The Hamburg Logistics Barometer is a special evaluation of the “Hamburg Economic Barometer“. Only the responses from the logistics sector are evaluated for the logistics barometer. Quarterly, over 600 companies from various sectors supported by the Hamburg Chamber of Commerce participate in the survey.

The Hamburg Logistics Barometer is published jointly by the Hamburg Chamber of Commerce, the Logistics Initiative Hamburg, the Association of Hamburg and Bremen Ship Brokers e.V., the Association of Road Freight Transport and Logistics Hamburg e.V., and the Association of Hamburg Freight Forwarders e.V.

The complete Hamburg Logistics Barometer 2020 can be found in the download area.

*The segment “Hamburg Logistics Sector” considered here includes, in accordance with the official classification of economic sectors (WZ 2008), the sectors of land transport and transport via pipeline, shipping, aviation, warehousing, as well as the provision of other services for transport and postal, courier, and express services.

The Hamburg Logistics Barometer 2020

Photo: © Adobe Stock / Graphic Hamburg Chamber of Commerce

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